As the world waits for the announcement of the next pope, an unexpected side of public interest is emerging — millions of dollars are being wagered on the outcome of the papal conclave. Betting platforms, especially those dealing in cryptocurrency, are reporting a surge in activity as gamblers place their bets on who will succeed Pope Francis.
This year’s conclave, currently underway in the Vatican, remains a solemn, secretive process, where Catholic cardinals gather behind closed doors to select the next head of the Church. However, outside those hallowed halls, betting markets have opened up to a global audience.
Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based betting site, is currently overseeing more than $18 million in bets on the next pope, while another platform, Kalshi, has seen wagers totaling nearly $6.7 million. On Polymarket, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s Secretary of State, leads the betting with 27% odds. Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle follows with 22%. Other frequently mentioned names include Matteo Zuppi, Pierbattista Pizzaballa, and Peter Erdo.
Gamblers can either “buy” or “sell” a candidate — betting for or against a cardinal’s chances. Tagle and Dutch Cardinal Willem Eijk have each drawn more than $1.3 million in bets, despite Eijk having only a 1% chance according to platform odds.
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Betting on the next pope remains controversial, not only because of the secrecy of the conclave but also due to the potential moral implications. Unlike sports betting, the odds here are murky, as there are no public campaigns or polling data. As Catholic theologian Tom Nash explained, popularity in the media doesn’t always translate to real support within the conclave. “Some who are considered long shots may actually have better chances,” he said, recalling how Pope Francis was not the favorite in 2013.
Nash also raised ethical concerns, pointing out that gambling on a sacred event like the conclave could invite moral risks. While the Church no longer explicitly bans such bets — a ban introduced in 1591 was not carried into modern canon law — Nash warned that this practice might undermine the dignity of the election.
“We shouldn’t reduce this sacred event to a sports match,” Nash said. “Our behavior could even become a temptation for others to misuse the moment — financially or spiritually.”
According to the Catechism of the Catholic Church, gambling is not inherently sinful, but it becomes morally unacceptable if it causes harm — particularly if it leads to financial ruin or addiction.
Despite the Church’s caution, betting on the next pope is drawing attention far beyond the Catholic world, fueled by curiosity, speculation, and the ever-growing reach of online wagering.
As the cardinals continue their closed-door deliberations in Vatican City, millions outside are not just watching — they’re betting on what comes next.
